Best Actor:

If pressed, I’ll go with Don Cheadle for “Hotel Rwanda”. But I see it as a dead heat between him and Jamie Foxx. Though with a credible third candidate in Clint Eastwood, the voting could end up going any which way.

Since Clint is up for Director as well, many voters will feel safe not voting for him here if they vote for him as best director. If Clint does win best actor, he will not win best director.

Best Supporting Actor:
First of all Jamie Foxx will NOT win this award. I am amazed at the cynical ploy of putting this role up for “Supporting” actor so that Jamie wouldn’t split votes with himself in the best actor category. He had more screen time than any other character in the film, and he was the PROTAGONIST… THE HERO… You may have been able to get away with calling Tom Cruise’s character in the film a supporting role due to his being the Villain and Antagonist, but not Foxx’s.

Even money says that Chris Rock will make a few jokes about this.

So who WILL win? All the others are contenders. Clive Owen probably is the least likely of the four. Morgan Freeman is the favorite who I’ll pick. Alda and Church may come in as a dark horse, but with both being better known for their TV work, I think the “Movie Star” aura of Freeman earned from his body of work will put him over the top, along with the possiblity of a “Million Dollar” juggernaut starting with this award.

Best Actress:

Hillary Swank… Too much praise for her work both physically and in traditional acting skills to think that anyone else will win. If “Million Dollar Baby” doesn’t win anything else, it will win this award. Everyone else should be rehearsing their “It’s an honor to just…” speech.

Supporting Actress:

Could be any one of them, but I’ve been hearing more buzz about Virginia Madsen’s performance being so good. This could be just the side effects of an Oscar campaign for her, but I’ll go with her.

Animated Feature Film:

“The Incredibles”. No question about it. If not expect rioting in the streets.

“Shrek 2” is a sequel that could have just as easily gone direct to video, and “Shark Tales” really didn’t capture much attention. These two films are only nominated because there has to be more than one nominee.

Art Direction:

“Aviator”.

With the exception of “A Very Long Engagement” the basic visual look of the other three are dictated largely by the source materials. Period pieces carry artistic categories more strongly. And give “Aviator” bonus points for evoking imagery of “Old Hollywood”.

Cinematography:

If Aviator is going to contend for film of the evening this will be a tell if it wins. But I suspect that for unique visuals of each film, it’s a race between “Passion of the Christ” and “House of Flying Daggers”.

I predict “Passion of the Christ” as this is the only opportunity for voters to recognize this film at all, which will give it an edge over “House of Flying Daggers”. “Daggers” is also here in it’s only nomination, but “Passion” has a far greater emotional backing.

Costume Design:
Again, I’ll go with “Aviator” for the same reason as I gave for Art Direction.

Directing:
According to the buzz, its between Scorsese and Eastwood. They say that Marty will win beause “he’s due”, not because of the film itself. That alone should be the kiss of death here. I’ve always heard that the Academy likes to give out awards to those who “are due” one, but I’ve never seen it. If there is superior competition, then the superior nominee will win.

So my prediction is that Eastwood will win another best director award. Though it’s not impossible to think that “Ray” or “Sideways” may pull an upset here.

As for Marty? That’s what Lifetime Achievement awards are for.

more predictions and Red Carpet blogging to come…