One of the possible motives for the recent bombings in Spain, is to influence the elections this weekend. If so, the terrorists may have won, or at the very least may believe that they have won.



The incumbent government in Spain lost the elections to the Socialists.



Debate over this can be found at Instapundit, Buzzmachine, Volokh Conspiracy, and Iberian Notes… (scroll around each site, as these posts are not the only words the authors have on the topic)



This leads me to worry, will we see such an attack in the US this fall? There’s already concern that the Saudis are trying to affect the election by means of driving up the cost of oil. Sabotaging the economy, so that Bush can be defeated. (see the American Thinker for an article on this, via Instapundit) It is plausible that in addition to this subtle action, a more violent one could occur here.



If that does happen. I doubt it would result in a Kerry win, barring any other unusual developments. The parts of the Republican base that may have otherwise not been as enthusiastic for an administration that has alienated economic conservatives and libertarian leaning GOPers would be doubly sure to get out to vote for Bush for personal safety reasons.



In addition the independents may well also sway towards Bush, as the Kerry strategy seems to presume that it can’t happen here again. If it does, the Kerry campaign will be up a creek. How could they shift to a “Bush is weak on terror” when they seem to lean towards a “Bush has gone overkill” on the war on terror approach.



If Kerry downplays the importance on the war on terror in upcoming months, it will be because of a belief that it won’t happen here again (at least not soon). This could bite Kerry in the butt if he bets his campaign strategy on that premise.



This is part of the motivation of several bloggers calling on Kerry to embrace a liberal vision of the War on Terror (see Buzzmachine for some links on this)



It is interesting to note that 9/11 did occur on a primary election day in New York state. So if such an attack does happen, there is a precedent on how to handle such a situation.



However, there is no modern precedent for such an attack to make an impact on a national election in the US. How would we react? Would fear keep us from the ballot box? Or would turnout skyrocket, fueled by defiance?



I hope we won’t find out.